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Monday, May 3, 2010

EUR/USD Technical Analysis - Monthly, May

The technical analysis picture on the EUR/USD monthly graph still looks depressing for the Euro. We are in the midst of a Dollar uptrend although there might be seen some signs for a change coming.
MACD is on the negative side and there seems more time will be needed till it goes positive. At the same time Stochastic shows the Euro is in the oversold area. The picture suggests that at least for the first days of May the Dollar will continue to grow stronger. As history shows there could be several months to pass before the trend gets definitely changed.

We could take a look at the monthly graph and expand it for a much longer period to see which are the possible resistance levels for the Dollar on its way up.
The horizontal red line shows the first possible Dollar resistance level against the Euro which lays at around 1.30.
As Euro looks being much oversold the most probable scenario looks a test of the 1.30 level and a bounce back.

Update: Markets reacted to the agreed bailout package of Greece with sending the Euro lower. In long term there is a chance Greece manages to recover and return the 110 billions of debt the EU and IMF decided to give her. As a result there will eventually be more quantity of money poured into the EU and IMF treasures. That however could take maybe 15-20 years to conclude. So the direct effect is diluting the Euro value and as a result the Dollar gets stronger.

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