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Monday, May 31, 2010

Euro/Dollar (EUR/USD) Technical Analysis - Weekly, 23 week, 2010

Hello. Let's take a look at the possible scenarios for the week ahead concerning the Euro/Dollar trading.

 The weekly graph points to possible bullish divergences for the Euro which could signal the trend reversal is near. The main problem with these divergences however is that they are not finished yet. This could lead to many people getting hurt by expecting a strong upward Euro movement while it still hasn't found a strong enough momentum. A classical case for a bull's trap. This could trigger a wave of stops being hit which presents a big opportunity for a test of the previous lows of the Euro around 1.21.
The daily graph also raises some warning signs which basically consist of the fact that even with positive MACD histogram and being in a relatively oversold position, the Euro is still not able to advance high enough (above 1.25-1.26) and to sustain that level.

With all that said it would be good to keep in mind that the mentioned divergences could get formed in the near future (maybe even next week) and an explosive upward move of the Euro against the US Dollar is highly possible.

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