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Monday, June 28, 2010

Euro/Dollar (EUR/USD) Technical Analysis - Weekly, 27 week, 2010

The expected upward movement for the Euro toward the US Dollar took place in previous weeks. While at first the Euro fell to about 1.19 then it advanced quickly to above 1.24 touching the 1.2460/70 area. After that the power of the Euro bulls started to vanish and it lost about 2 cents.
This week starts with an advance of the Euro again and now it trades near 1.24 level again. The weekly graph (click on it for a better view) however hardly supports a lasting increase of the Euro value against the US Dollar.

The Euro went to the MA level and the Stochastic is continuing to climb to the overbought areas. Still however, it is not there so we might witness a test or even a break of the previous high at 1.247 level. The next resistance lays at the 38.2 Fibonacci level which means it would trade around 1.256 Dollars. Still the MAs on the weekly graph are too far from each other and the possibility for another fall of the Euro to around the 1.2/1.19 level is valid.
The trading during the week could be a very volatile one because the Euro/Dollar pair is at marginal levels. Plus the end of the month is near which would form the view on the monthly graph.

The important news from the markets concerning the EUR/USD currency pair in the week ahead are the Consumer Price index in Germany (to be released on Monday), the Money supply levels in EMU zone and UK (due Monday and Tuesday), Personal income and Consumption in USA (to be released on Monday), Consumer confidence in EU and USA, Unemployment rate in Germany (Wednesday) and in EMU and USA (Friday), Gross Domestic Product of UK (Wednesday), Jobless claims in USA (Thursday).

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