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Tuesday, February 16, 2010

EUR / USD Technical View

As it can be seen on the following graph the fifth wave from the downward path for the Euro (and the increase of the value of the Dollar) that was expected in the EUR/USD Wave analysis published at the start of the last week already took part. Now the current down Euro movement might experience some correction.

  The Euro didn't fall below 1.35 so the level around 1.3530 could be considered as a current support level. The down waves are marked on the graph by the vertical red lines.

The green horizontal lines represent the Fibonacci retracement levels of the current second part of the Euro fall. Now the exchange value has reached the first level at 1.377. As this is a turnaround point of a greater magnitude than the inside waves this level should be broken and the rate to reach at least 1.392/404 (where are the 38.2 and 50% retracements).

Such view is supported by the indicators and the bullish divergences seen there. They are marked on the left graph by thick red lines. A triple point divergence might lead the price even higher than the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Still the monthly graph is pointing down so a major turning of the macro down trend for the Euro in the near term is less possible than the other options.

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