After the start of the biggest till now fall in the history of the Bulgarian most widely followed index SOFIX it has lost more than 82% of its value. The highest point achieved was 1981.8 form the first week of October 2007. Yesterday it closed at 346.87. We now have more than a year of almost uninterrupted downtrend.
Many people might have expected the new year to start with new hights. The volume traded provided no such evidence. Moreover as can be seen on the above picture, there could be a hidden divergence on the daily graph of SOFIX. This might mean that the will to go higher has no power to support the growth. On the weekly graph the trend still points south so bearing in mind the divergence we might see the previous low of 319 been broken. The next stop from there is around 220-260 where could be seen a single stop in the uptrend in the early year 2003.
The surprise of the short-horizon people (mainly speculators who hoped to sell after a minimum amount of time) from the falling index might lead to a new wave of extensive sell and backing off of the buyers.
Many people might have expected the new year to start with new hights. The volume traded provided no such evidence. Moreover as can be seen on the above picture, there could be a hidden divergence on the daily graph of SOFIX. This might mean that the will to go higher has no power to support the growth. On the weekly graph the trend still points south so bearing in mind the divergence we might see the previous low of 319 been broken. The next stop from there is around 220-260 where could be seen a single stop in the uptrend in the early year 2003.
The surprise of the short-horizon people (mainly speculators who hoped to sell after a minimum amount of time) from the falling index might lead to a new wave of extensive sell and backing off of the buyers.
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