EURUSD Short-term Technical Analysis

The technical EURUSD (Euro / USD) picture for the day and current situation (15min graph) is as follows:

• main direction (daily) - Up (Euro rises as US Dollar falls)
• current situation - on the edge, possible reversal in the way following a last upward movement.

 The 15 min graph shows the EURUSD pair is in the middle of its upward movement. The danger presented by the negative MACD values could be temporarily offset by the oversold condition (shown by the lower values of Stochastic at the moment). This could lead the pair to new highs above the previous high at 1.3836. The negative MACD however could signal the end of such upward movement and a fail to probe strongly that level would prove such possibility. At that point the Stochastic might well be in overbought condition and further ease the going down.

The great danger to any continuation of the upward movement of the Euro are the negative MACD divergences seen on the 1h and 4h graphs. Still there is a space to go up and any down movement could be followed by a strong reversal.

Having in mind the above conditions a fall to at least 1.3790 is to be expected soon. Having that level broken, 1.3770 is the next target.

A Warning Sign for the Euro Bulls

The rise up of the Euro against the Dollar has been in place for the last months. Now the time for a change may be near. Take a look at the daily EUR/USD graph (click on it to see it big):

Here we have a bit of a worring picture. The value of Euro has continued to rise despite the MACD recorded lower values. The Stochastic followed the MACD but still the MAs are on the positive side. That explains the volatile movements we are seeing these days. The Stochastic is pointing forward and the Euro rose again today. So far. The formation which is about to be formed is very worrisome for the Euro as there is a chance the power of the Euro Bulls that drives the increase of its value toward the Dollar to be vanishing.

The weekly graph still shows the Euro may has some time to go up but the Stochastic points it to be a bit overbought.

The more important warning sign is on the Monthly EURO/USD graph shown below:

Here the MAs are still not on a positive side but still the Euro has risen a lot for the past months. What lights the red lamp is the Stochastic value which show the Dollar might be oversold. If that proves to be true we might witness another major rise of the Dollar in the next months. The situations requires attention and the conclusions might vary depending on the real data.