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Sunday, August 24, 2008

Mass Moods

The days come that almost noone believes the trend could change its direction. The media in Bulgaria almost everyday tell us how bad is the health of the stock exchange. It's almost like in the days of euphoria - everybody had their arguments why the prices will continue to grow and now everone could tell you why they should fall.
We should be aware of the signs that tell us the time will change before everybody sees it and moreover, admits it. The timing is the hardest problem. Many people could see the sings and jump in the game. And then the market continues to go his way. After time they could be proven right but till that day they're on the losing side. And sometimes this could be a big risk - depending on the portion of your capital that you've chosen to bet on your understanding of the market. Sometimes on the very lows people that have managed to survive the big crisis could take their biggest loses - wheather they start to be impatient or the pride of "guessing" the crisis makes them more confident with themselves. This risk could be lowered by just waiting the market to completly change /when this is a fact is another question.../ its direction and then jump on. But as market is made by people there is no such moment as the right one for everyone. If everybody waits to see the complete turning who's going to buy so the prices could go higher?...

This is the best part - the different participants take actions in different times. The more condensed their actions are the more sharp and stronger the movements are. Now the movements are undefined with a slight direction downward.... Sometimes there are buy-outs on some positions yet the overall turnover remains low.